Flood risk analysis for the Gulf of Finland and Saint Petersburg

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of the Project are:

to develop statistical models for the analysis of sea level data in the Baltic Sea;
to carry out the analysis of interannual variability of the sea level in the Baltic Sea on the basis of the available coastal and altimetry data and the developed models;
to perform statistical and numerical model studies of sea-level extremes and their relation to the natural variability and anthropogenic influence;
to assess the risk of short-term (catastrophic) flooding;
to examine the long-term trends in sea level in the Gulf of Finland, in view of gradual flooding and sinking of its shores;
to study water quality in Neva Bay with a new refined model of Neva Bay and EGF; with presence of the St. Petersburg Flood Protection Barrier
to improve the accuracy of operational Flood Forecasting System for St. Petersburg by re-validation and introducing data assimilation methods;
to study (from numerical experiments) the characteristics of water motion, to uncover the predominant flood-generating mechanisms (such as wind-drift, or long-wave propagation);
to assess the contribution to the sea-level rise from various natural factors, based on numerical experiments with specified scenarios;
to modernize the Baltic sea level information systems.